Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
