A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
